The Academy Awards nomination voting has concluded, and early indications from anonymous voters suggest a nomination landscape far less predictable than initially believed. While some categories may follow conventional wisdom, others are ripe for significant upsets, potentially echoing the dramatic shifts seen in the 2003 nominations. This year's race is marked by unexpected contenders, vote-splitting among international films, and a highly complex preferential voting system that could reshape the director category. From breakout films like 'F1' to a wide-open Best Actress race, the path to the final nominations is filled with intriguing possibilities and potential shocks.
One of the most notable developments is the unexpected surge of Joseph Kosinski's 'F1' from Apple Original Films. Academy voters, particularly the older guard, have expressed strong approval for the film, often describing it as "great" and "good old-school entertainment." This sentiment could propel 'F1' into one of the coveted ten Best Picture slots, despite its critical reception not being overtly passionate. The film is also gaining momentum for technical nominations, including film editing, sound, and visual effects, drawing parallels to past contenders like 'Ford v Ferrari' (2019).
The international film landscape presents a complex challenge due to significant vote splitting. Distributors like Neon have heavily promoted numerous non-English language films, creating an unexpected dilemma for voters. Films such as Norway's 'Sentimental Value,' Brazil's 'The Secret Agent,' South Korea's 'No Other Choice,' and France's 'It Was Just an Accident' are all vying for attention, not only in the International Feature category but also for Best Picture and other major awards. 'Sentimental Value' is particularly strong, anticipated to secure multiple nominations, including Best Picture, Director, and several acting nods. However, 'It Was Just an Accident,' despite its admiration, may struggle to gain broad support, potentially becoming a notable snub.
The director category is poised for a mathematically driven outcome, influenced by the Academy's preferential nomination system. This system involves voters ranking their choices, and a "magic number" (quota) is calculated for nomination eligibility. Crucially, the "surplus rule" dictates that if a nominee receives votes significantly exceeding the quota, the excess votes are redistributed to the voter's subsequent choices. This mechanism could dramatically alter the director lineup. For instance, if Paul Thomas Anderson garners an overwhelming number of first-place votes, his surplus could be redistributed among a diverse pool of secondary choices, making the race unusually fluid and competitive, with strong contenders like Josh Safdie, Guillermo del Toro, Joachim Trier, and Ryan Coogler potentially benefiting.
The Best Actor race is highly contested, featuring prominent names such as Timothée Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, Ethan Hawke, Michael B. Jordan, Wagner Moura, and Jesse Plemons, with Joel Edgerton for 'Train Dreams' emerging as a dark horse. The success in this category often relies not just on individual performance but also on the overall strength of the film and "coattail votes." Actors whose films are strong contenders in other major categories, like Best Picture or Original Screenplay, tend to benefit from voters placing both the film and the actor on their ballots. For example, Ethan Hawke's strong standing is boosted by the likely success of Richard Linklater's 'Blue Moon.'
The Best Actress category is identified as the most volatile, with only Jessie Buckley for 'Hamnet' considered a secure lock. Emma Stone ('Bugonia') is entering a phase where her established respect carries significant weight, while Renate Reinsve ('Sentimental Value') benefits from strong international support. Kate Hudson ('Song Sung Blue') has gained momentum with recent awards and the enthusiastic backing of her parents, Kurt Russell and Goldie Hawn. However, relative newcomer Chase Infiniti from 'One Battle After Another' faces the risk of a surprising omission, despite her film's potential Best Picture win. Other potential contenders, including Amanda Seyfried ('The Testament of Ann Lee'), Tessa Thompson ('Hedda'), and Eva Victor ('Sorry, Baby'), add further uncertainty to this highly unpredictable category.
Beyond the major categories, the documentary and international feature races are described as particularly challenging to predict. These categories often see voters gravitate towards personal discoveries rather than consensus picks, making traditional predictions unreliable. Similarly, supporting actor and actress categories feature a mix of established names and potential breakout stars. For example, Benicio del Toro and Sean Penn ('One Battle After Another'), Jacob Elordi ('Frankenstein'), Paul Mescal ('Hamnet'), and Stellan Skarsgård ('Sentimental Value') are strong contenders for supporting actor, while Amy Madigan ('Weapons'), Teyana Taylor ('One Battle After Another'), and Wunmi Mosaku ('Sinners') are frontrunners for supporting actress. Intriguingly, Ariana Grande ('Wicked: For Good') appears solid, but a surprise nominee like Gwyneth Paltrow ('Marty Supreme') could emerge, leveraging her past Oscar win.
The technical and craft categories also hold potential for surprises. Films like 'Sinners' could make history with multiple nominations, especially for original songs. 'Train Dreams' might secure nominations in score or song, depending on voter engagement. 'Wicked: For Good' could emulate past successes with acting and technical nods, boosted by the influence of Stephen Schwartz. However, 'Hamnet' missed key cinematography nominations, potentially signaling a broader miss. Conversely, James Vanderbilt’s 'Nuremberg' is gaining unexpected support in costume design, original score, adapted screenplay, and even Best Picture. These diverse factors underscore the unpredictability of this year's Oscar nominations, where the usual precursor clues may not fully capture the upcoming surprises.
The impending Oscar nominations could either follow established patterns, with approximately 80% of predictions holding true, or deliver a seismic shift akin to the 2003 awards. That year, despite 'The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King' sweeping many categories, the nominations saw unexpected entries like Fernando Meirelles for 'City of God' and Jude Law for 'Cold Mountain,' defying precursor trends. The Best Actress category, in particular, was upended by nominees such as Keisha Castle-Hughes and Samantha Morton, who secured nods without significant prior support, displacing presumed frontrunners. These historical parallels suggest that Academy voters might once again lean towards unexpected choices, promising an exciting and potentially chaotic nomination morning.